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Math and Logic Explain Why the Bulls Shouldn't Want Joe Johnsonby Ricky O'Donnell on February 9, 2010 at 2:02PM
 These free agents fall into different tiers. LeBron is in a tier by himself. Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are a step below. Amare and Dirk make up tier three. Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer are tier four. The Bulls will be aiming for a player in the first three tiers, but they'll have plenty of company. What if the Bulls fail? Would Johnson or Boozer be satisfactory? In a fanpost at Blog-a-Bull, YaoPau examined what would happen if the Bulls gave Johnson a max contract. His research shows the results probably wouldn't be pretty. The whole thing is essential to read, but here's a snippet. First of all, let's not even assume that the Bulls would be able to get Johnson out of Atlanta. JJ turned down a four-year, $60 million contract extension before the season. That's $15 million annually. Basically, for the Bulls to get him, the Hawks will have to decide he's not worth a max deal (about $18 million a year), and the Bulls will have to decide he is. When you factor in how well the Hawks are playing this year and that they were ready to give him close to max money before the season, I feel like Atlanta will offer him the max and Johnson will take it. That wouldn't be ideal for the Bulls, but it may not be the worst thing in the world, either. I'm getting really nervous about this. Even if the Bulls did sign Johnson, I almost feel as if the Bulls' plan would be a failure. Johnson is for sure a better player than Ben Gordon, but you have to remember Gordon would cost $7 million less a year, is two years younger, and would have been on the Bulls this season. All things considered, I think might rather have Gordon than Johnson, and I was kind of a BG hater. With everyone saying that Chris Bosh either wants to play with LeBron or Wade, I feel like the Bulls best plan of attack may be to create enough cap room to sign two max players. It's totally risky, but this plan is already. Why have one foot in? Go big or go home. For the Bulls, "going big" would mean trading Salmons, Hinrich, and Deng for expirings. Is it worth the risk? The Bulls could easily still get shut out, and then have a crappy team and a ton of unused cap space. But if the best they can realistically hope for is Boozer or Johnson, why not go for it? |
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Salmons and Hinrich can go, but I'm really concerned about trading Deng. I know it's impossible to bring in two max contract players without getting his contract off the books, but the Bulls are in such deep shit if they trade him and strike out completely. That leaves the roster at, what, Rose, Noah, Taj, Johnson, and one 1st round and one 2nd round pick before the free agency period starts. (And Omer Asik??)
I'm not optimistic at all that the Bulls bring in two max contract guys, so they'll probably end up having to go with one max contract + one non-max contract. So I guess the question then is what secondary players are out there. I don't really know what Houston is doing with Ming, or what their money situation is if they keep him next year, which I assume they will, so I'd keep an eye on the Scola/Landry situation. Another non-max contract option would be David Lee. Maybe there's a few more, but those are the three that jumped out at me after a quick look at the list.
Obviously, the Bulls would have to figure out the best combination both financially and on the court, but if they went this route there's a good chance they'd be able to keep Deng. Since this seems like a much more likely outcome than two of the top seven free agents leaving their current teams and signing with the Bulls, it would kind of suck to have traded Deng.
I know the identities of the free agents actually matter, but could a team with Rose/Noah/Deng/max contract/less-than-max-contract with a bench of Taj, Johnson, Asik, and a mid-first-round pick compete in the East? I'd think so.
One max contract guy and one non-max guy is fine, my worry is that they aren't going to find anyone to take the max money. Most people think Bosh wants to play with either Wade or 'Bron. Miami has max contract room and can sign him. Houston and Dallas both have max contract room too, and Bosh is from Texas. You also got to figure the Knicks are going to get someone.
So that's why I think trading Deng + Hinrich + Salmons is something at least to think about. If you trade Hinrich and Salmons, you'll have money, but will there be anyone to accept your max deal? I realize how risky it is, and I'm not even saying that the Bulls should for sure do it, but it's at least something to think about.
Here's what I think is could happen: LeBron stays, JJ stays, Dirk stays, Bosh to Texas team, Boozer to Miami, Wade stays, Amare to NY/NJ. Then what would the Bulls do?
Maybe Bosh goes to Miami and Boozer comes to Chicago. Maybe the Bulls land Amare. I still think there's a chance Wade/Bosh could come here, even if the Bulls only get rid of Salmons. But it's difficult because the Bulls have to spend this money.
What if they trade Deng/Hinrich/Salmons, and then tell Bosh and Wade to come play together in Chicago with Rose and Noah? I think that's a pretty appealing option for those guys.
I get what you're saying. There's so many variables that it's really hard to predict. First, the Houston thing. I really have no idea what they're going to do. They have to make decisions on Ming, Landry, Scola, and Lowry. Any indication on what their plans are? It's pretty feasible that they're out of the running before they even look at anyone outside their organization.
The other thing that keeps getting brought up is the Knicks. Everyone seems to think it's a given that they land one of the big fish. I guess I really don't understand this. If they don't get LeBron, who has been very public about his affection for New York, who will they get? It's not like they've really been a huge free agent player since they signed Allan Houston a decade and a half ago, and they really don't have any attractive pieces in place.
I guess I'd say go for it, if only because I'm sick of this franchise being a .500 team with no real shot of going any farther than the second round, but it scares the hell out of me to do it.
First things first:
To begin with, they'll need a new head coach already in place before they even attempt wooing any of these "max" players you're day dreaming about. Do you think any front-line NBA stars are drooling at the prospect of going down in flames with Vinny?
Secondly ... most of these mega stars go into semi-retirement once they've maxed out their potential earnings, so the argument in favor of any of them leading the Bulls to the promised land is moot.
Secondly ... most of these mega stars go into semi-retirement once they've maxed out their potential earnings, so the argument in favor of any of them leading the Bulls to the promised land is moot.
With an attitude like that, you should probably ditch sports and take up a new hobby.
Yeah, I don't see a bunch of guys in their mid twenties (or early thirties in Dirk's case), getting complacent at this point, especially considering Wade is the only one of them who has one a championship.
I see a whole lot of pro athletes mailing it in, and not just in basketball. Big Ben pretty much curled up and died after the Bulls gave him his $60 million. And can anyone say Tim Thomas? Seems as though almost every team in the league has played hot potato at one time or another with Tim's terminally bad contract. He's like a bad penny. A very expensive bad penny.
And how's that Soriano deal working out for you, Cub fans? Good thing Bradley came along to make you forget the king's ransom Hendry wasted on Alfonso. That contract made Milt's $30 million look like chump change.
And I'm sure that Sox fans remember Jamie Navarro going on that 5,000 calorie a day diet shortly after signing a four year contract with the South Siders. I was pretty sure that Zambrano was going to follow in his footsteps, but it looks like he'll have a mental breakdown long before he has a chance to eat his way out of the league.
And if I remember correctly, Cedric Benson decided to retire before the ink was even dry on his rookie contract. He wasn't around long enough to become complacent.
It's rare that paying "fuck you" money to any player works out for the team that actually picks up the tab.
None of the guys you mentioned dispute my point and none of them really help to make yours.
First of all, all of these guys are young. With the exception of Dirk, all of these guys are between the ages of 25-28. Almost all of the guys you mentioned were on the wrong side of 30 when they signed their contract.
Soriano was 31, and didn't become bad until his age 33 season, which can at least partially be attributed to him playing with a bum leg for most of the year, in which place, that's kind of the opposite of mailing it in (playing injured).
Ben Wallace was 32. He, too, wasn't that bad in his first year (at least his numbers weren't far off from the previous season). Then his numbers fell off a bit at 33.
Tim Thomas was never really that good to begin with. He averaged over 13 points just twice in his career. Look at his stats. There's really nothing remarkable about him at any point in his career. Before his contract he was unremarkable, he was signed to a big deal based on someone thinking he had potential, and he just never really fulfilled it. He didn't mail anything in. He just wasn't that good to begin with.
Same goes for Navarro. He had a career 4.10 ERA before signing with the White Sox and he had quite a few miles on his arm before signing with them.
Milton Bradley didn't "mail anything in" either. He had a disappointing season by his standards, but you really could never accuse the guy of dogging it or not caring. If there is one thing you could say about him, it's that he busted his ass. Of course, that's not to be confused with a couple of memorable mental lapses that he made. But by no means did he mail it in. A lot of Cubs' fans disappointment with Milton Bradley stems from unrealistic expectations. It's comical how many fans I've talked to that truly expected him to hit 25-30 home runs, when his career high before joining the Cubs was 22. And that was in Texas. His career OPS+ is 117. Last year it was 99. Again, disappointing year, but hardly grounds to accuse him of going into semi retirement.
And I can't figure out for the life of me why Zambrano is part of your defense. The guy has never once in his career had a season with an ERA over 4, or an ERA+ under 110. His numbers have regressed slightly, but that's what 5 straight 200+ inning seasons will do to a pitcher.
I'm not even going to address Benson because I refuse to defend him and even if I wanted to, I really don't know enough about football to offer an explanation as to why he went from so bad to so good. What I will say is that he doesn't fit into your argument at all. He didn't even have his big pay day in the NFL before he sucked.
All in all, the guys you listed were one or more of, (a) old, (b) injured (c) not very good to begin with, (d) still good, or (d) hadn't gotten paid yet.
As for the guys relevant to this discussion, like I said they're pretty much all young, unlike many of the guys you mention. Like I said many still haven't won championships. They're also young enough that they might not even be playing for their last contracts yet. And finally, these are all pretty much top 25 NBA players. I'd say with the exception of Zambrano and MAYBE Soriano, none of the guys you mentioned fell into that category at the time they signed their contracts.
I stand by my assertion that a goodly number of players that sign contracts which pretty much set them up for the rest of their lives, rarely if ever live up to the promise.
Human nature and common sense dictate that when financial incentive is taken out of the equation, a certain sense of urgency is removed as well. It might just be subliminal, but most people have a reluctance to kill themselves if they don't absolutely have to, and professional athletes are no different than the rest of us.
This is why so many big companies and corporations are being run into the ground. Succeed or fail, the people at the top (CEO's) are insulated, and immune from the consequences of their own decisions.
When you have a Golden Parachute, why should you fear hitting the ground?
Ok...
Hang onto that assertion all you want, but the basis you provided for it is extremely shaky (generously speaking). MJ, Shaq, David Robinson, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Derek Jeter, ARod, Manny Ramirez, and many other elite athletes who already cashed in only to subsequently win championships kind of disputes your theory. But hey, if you want to stick to it because Tim Thomas (you did say megastars (most megastars, at that), by the way) never averaged 15 points a game and Ben Wallace and Alfonso Soriano (two players with flawed games in their respective sports, mind you), got old, be my guest.
MJ, Shaq, David Robinson, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Derek Jeter, ARod, Manny Ramirez"
Shaq and Robinson were role players by the time they won later in their careers, and Garnett never saw the court in the playoffs when Boston won the championship.
I'll give you MJ, Kobe, and Jeter, but A-Fraud and Manny both juiced.
Robinson averaged a double double the first year the Spurs won. (lockout-shortened, but still)
Shaq won four championships after he got paid. On none of those teams could he have been considered a simply a role player.
And Garnett being injured does nothing to support your point. He was still a beast all season long and showed no signs of mailing it in.
And, fine. Mark Teixera, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, CC Sabathia, Randy Johnson.
Seriously, man. Your argument for the Bulls not going after a max-contract free agent makes no sense and really can't be supported.
Robinson averaged a double double the first year the Spurs won. (lockout-shortened, but still)
Shaq won four championships after he got paid. On none of those teams could he have been considered a simply a role player.
And Garnett being injured does nothing to support your point. He was still a beast all season long and showed no signs of mailing it in.
And, fine. Mark Teixera, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, CC Sabathia, Randy Johnson.
Seriously, man. Your argument for the Bulls not going after a max-contract free agent makes no sense and really can't be supported.
Boozer and Amare are the same tier. You H8 Boozer.
The Bulls should look into doing what they can before the trade deadline and not hope for free agents to sign with them in the summer.
That means going after Amare and asking GM Steve Kerr to lower his asking price because the Suns most likely won't get a long term deal done with Amare. Might as well get something in return before it's too late.
Amare along with Derrick Rose should be a great combo and will immediately improve their record. If this requires trading Kirk Hinrich along with Tyrus Thomas and Brad Miller with the Suns throwing in a player to match salaries, so be it. Although I do believe Tyrus will grow as a player and as an adult to become a solid attribute to the Suns style of play. Losing Kirk defense will be tough but can be replaced.
I also heard that the Celtics want Kirk Hinrich so we'll see how this plays out. I hope somehow John Salmons trade stock rises so he can be shipped.
One thing is for sure, I'd love for the Bulls and GM Gar Foreman to find a way to land Amare and Ray Allen this year and see where the playoffs take them. With Ray Allen's expiring contract the Bulls will stay have room come season's end.