I do a PECOTA post
every year, and - oh hey! - Baseball Prospectus' Nate Silver-inspired numbers machine has
put out a new set of data. This is quite possibly my favorite algorithm.
Once again, PECOTA hates on our White Sox. Like always. BP has the Sox winning 79 games - the same amount they won last year - and finishing second in the Central to the Twins.
On the plus side, the division looks horribly mediocre, so the Sox for sure have a chance. I actually fully expect the Sox to win the Central, but I'm not a computer, so what do I know.
But seriously, I love PECOTA, but bashing it is always kind of fun.
Also on the plus side: PECOTA has the Cubbies at 77 wins. Suck on that Northsiders!
Fuck PECOTA, and the horse's ass it rode in on. You can keep any player who knows exactly what "Player Empirical Comparison And Optimization Test Algorithm" means.
I'll take the guy who can hit a low outside curve.
Question: Did this statistical pile of shit predict that the Sox were going to run away and hide from the rest of the division, and stroll through the playoffs to a World Series sweep in '05?
Answer: No
80 wins was their forecast.
Perhaps this anti-intellectual rant is more your style: http://bostonherald.com/sports/columnists/view.bg?articleid=1229098&position=0
That was funny.
All those numbers, and statistical trends, and the game still comes down to a guy like Buckner booting a grounder to first base anyway.
When they can predict shit like that, I'll start paying attention to these pencil pushing nimrods.