The PECOTA projections are out, and they're not pretty

I know everyone's all sorts of geeked up for the debut of the new look Bulls tonight (it feels gratifying just typing that), but lets talk White Sox for a second. The PECOTA predictions came out yesterday, and I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking it's one of the best parts of Spring Training. Now that I actually have full access to BP for the first time ever (thank you PB family), I've been able to get a little more in-depth with it, and it's pretty interesting stuff.

For those that don't know, PECOTA is basically the best model we have to project individual and team performance in baseball. It's a complex algorithm created by Nate Silver, who gained national fame when he started a little blog called fivethirtyeight last year. All he did there was predict the presidential election as accurately as anyone ever, calling 49 of the 50 states correctly (damn you, Indiana). The man is a super genius in every sense; his projections are correct more often than anyone's.


In case you were wondering just how accurate PECOTA is, know that they called the Rays last year (are you kidding me?) and nailed the 2007 Sox season before a pitch was ever thrown.

So yeah, this thing is pretty good. Not perfect, obviously (that's why they play the games!), but as good (and cool) as anything we've got in sports.

The full projections came out yesterday for the 2009 season, so lets hit the high points (I'm not even sure if I can do this because BP is a pay site, so I'll try not to go too wild):

Team Stuff

- The big news (at least to us) is that PECOTA thinks the Sox are going to be garbage. How bad? Um, worse than the Royals. Yeah. Last year's AL Central champs are projected to finish 73-89, a game worse than KC.

- The good news though is that PECOTA sees the AL Central as the worst and most competitive division top-to-bottom in baseball. Just 10 games separate first from last. In case you're wondering, Cleveland is projected to take the division crown.

- All is not lost, however. PECOTA predicted the AL Central worse than any division in baseball last year. The Tigers finished 17 games worse were than projected, the Sox 11 games better.

- As for our neighbors to the North, the Cubbies are picked to have the best record in the NL with 95 wins. Last year PECOTA said the Cubs would win the NL Central and Brewers would take home the Wild Card. Correct, on both accounts.

- I haven't published this yet here I don't think, but anyone who has talked baseball with me this winter knows the Yankees are my pick to win the World Series in 2009. The hardest part will be just making the playoffs, though. PECOTA thinks all three AL East juggernauts will win over 90 games.