JD to Cinci; the Bears win an important one

Couldn't Kenny Williams wait til Wednesday? I have finals this week, brother. Yuck.

Both teams have denied it, but it looks like the long rumored Jermaine Dye for Homer Bailey deal is on. As of right now, there is very little info on this - no one knows if it's a one-for-one swap or if the Sox are snatching up someone else from this list - but it looks like the principles are in place.

Stompy and I have both expressed our love for JD in the past, so this kind of sucks. He's been the Sox best hitter the last four years and is one of my fav baseball players of all-time. But, as we've discussed sporadically the last week or two, Kenny Williams deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Here's what I think it comes down to: the Sox were in need of another quality young arm, and dealing Dye was the easiest way to get one. Dye is 35, plays horrible defense, and has only a year remaining on his contract. I thought Dye could have been ticketed for DH-1B after this year because his bat should still be really good, but KW obviously didn't see it that way. Finding a veteran corner outfielder is way easier than finding a high upside young starter though, so it's hard to argue with KW's intentions.

Here's what we know about Homer Bailey

Bailey is only 22 and this time last year was considered one of baseball's elite prospects. There are certainly some paraells between he and Gavin Floyd here, but I actually think Bailey has a higher ceiling. Bailey tore it up in AA in 2007, but really regressed last year. He made eight major league starts in Cinci in 2008, finishing 0-6 with an ERA of 7.93 and a WHIP of over 2.0, which is absolutely horrendous. There was talk that his mechanics were all jacked up and as a result he lost about five MPH on his heater.

I would like to think that the drop in velocity isn't permanent and if anyone can straighten out his mechanics it's Don Cooper. Plus his regression only started once Dusty Baker took over the Reds, so there is probably something to be said for that.

Another subplot: the Sox clear Dye's $12 million (?) salary and have Bailey under control for practically nothing for six seasons. Add in the money cleared with trades of Swisher and Javy, and the Sox now have a ton of money to sign a marquee free agent. I know the economy has hit a lot of baseball teams hard and Sox could certainly  be in that boat, but I doubt that this excess money is going to stay in Reinsdorf's pocket. I honestly wouldn't rule out CC Sabathia or Mark Teixeira right now.

Replacing Dye might not be as hard as everyone thinks either, when you factor in his terrible D. There are plenty of veteren corner outfielders who could come in and give probably 80 percent of what Dye did offensively and should be much better defensively.

So yeah. It sucks to see JD go (if, you know, these reports are true) but if Bailey can fulfill his potential, it's probably a steal for the Sox. Much more on this later, though I'm super busy this week, so I'm not promising anything.

(Update: maybe this isn't happening just yet....)

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(The rest of this post was written about an hour before the Dye rumors hit. I doubt anyone cares about the Bears right now, but whatever.)

Even though they're currently in a dog fight for a division title, I don't know if my interest in the Bears has ever been lower. Maybe it's because the always awesome Winter Meetings start up today, maybe it's because of how fascinating it is to watch Derrick Rose grow up, but most likely it's because I have finals this week and naturally put off all my studying and papers til the last minute. As I mentioned earlier, I didn't even know the Bears were playing the Jags until a few days ago, so maybe it's fitting that I slept through nearly the entire game. So don't come here expecting any fantastic insights, because I really didn't see anything.

Anyways, the Bears did what they had to do, taking care of business and defeating the hapless Jaguars, keeping the playoffs hopes alive. A lot of people have been building up the Bears' final four games as must wins if they want to reach the playoffs, and I doubt that'll happen. But I also don't think it'll take an undefeated final quarter of the season to win the division, though I have no idea how the tiebreaker works since they split with Minnesota. Just looking at the two teams schedules though, it's possible no team in the NFC North is reaches 10-6. See for yourself:

Bears

vs Saints
vs Packers
at Texans

Vikings

at Cardinals
vs Falcons
vs Giants

I think the Bears could run the table, but 2-1 might just get the job done (Over-Under on Drew Brees touchdown passes Thursday: 4.5). All three teams on Minnesota's schedule are better than them, though only Atlanta will have something to play for. I was kind of pissed that Arizona locked up its division today, but whatever. The Cards could still easily handle the Vikings on Sunday, particularly is Tav Jackson is running the show. 

The larger point is this: the Bears have zero shot at winning the Super Bowl this year, and they'll almost certainly get plowed in the first round of the playoffs, if they make it that far. But I'm not sure that matters. I still really want the Bears to make the playoffs. I don't think the mentality should be 'championship or bust' all the time; if that's the case, you'll never be fulfilled as a fan.

Take the Sox last year for example. I couldn't be happier with how that season went, even if they sort of got owned by the Rays. Making the playoffs - and specifically those last two wins over Detroit (Alexei's unforgettable slam) and the Shitheads (remember BA's diving catch for the final out?) - made it the whole season worthwhile. Maybe the Bears can muster up the same kind of good will, a slightly better draft pick can be damned.

It'd also be nice to figure out what we have in Kyle Orton. McNabb should be available this offseason and Derek Anderson probably will be, too. Is Orton really the guy the Bears want to go with long term? It's hard to evaluate him right now because of the ankle injury, but more than anything I'm just looking for confirmation that Orton actually is, you know, good. Right now I think he is, but I'm not sure. The Bears can't be either.

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After my heavy involvement in that year end music thread on SouthSideSox (you can check my albums of the year here), I think I'm going to start listing a few songs to download every Monday. Gotta try to spice things up around here every once in a while, ya know? I'm sure no one cares, but here ya go:

Tokyo Police Club - Tessellate
Deerhunter - Nothing Ever Happened
Silversun Pickups - Well Thought Out Twinkles
The Shins - Turn a Square

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Phil's list at Top Ten today is fun, so make sure to check it. And read The Fantasy Factor too, as Matt is covering for me today because of school and he's actually worth reading.