March 2008 Archive

White Sox season preview

by Ricky O'Donnell on March 31 at 1:15PM

This season I'll be writing a weekly White Sox column for Beachwood Reporter. What appears on that site now went through some heavy editing, so below is what I originally submitted. Please note that anything on BR that isn't written below was added by an editor, not me. I would certainly never say that The Cell sucks (it doesn't, and I didn't write that) and take shots at Sox fans because, well, I am one...

If it’s Opening Day for the White Sox, that can only mean one thing: C.C. Sabathia and Cleveland Indians will be the opponent. For the fourth consecutive season the Sox and Indians start of the year against each other, with the White Sox coming out victorious two of the last three times.

Don’t discount the way the opening game can set the tempo for an entire season. In 2005, the Sox snuck by the Tribe 1-0, with the immortal Shingo Takatsu- frisbee pitch and all- recording the final out. Little did anyone know at the time, but 1-0 would also be the score of the Sox’s final game that season, a win over Houston to secure the World Series.

In 2006, the White Sox pounded Cleveland 10-4. The rest of that season would characterized by their explosive offense, with four players hitting over 30 home runs, but a 90-win campaign was good enough to only finish third in the mighty AL Central.

Then there was last year’s 12-5 beat down Cleveland handed the White Sox. They never recovered, losing 90 games.

But this is the start of a new season, one that began with a declaration from manager Ozzie Guillen that if the Sox win the World Series, he will run naked down Michigan Avenue. Sounds more appealing to Cubs fans, right? Hey, I’m not here to take shots at our friends to the North (ok, maybe that’s a lie), but when the Sox share a division with two of baseball’s best three teams, making fun of the Cubs is all I have. Don’t take it away from me.

I want to be optimistic about this White Sox season, I really do. Some of the moves they made in the offseason were great, specifically trading for Nick Swisher and Carlos Quentin, two hitters known for their patience and power. Those moves potentially signify a change in the way the organization thinks about the game. I’m still not convinced Guillen or general manager Kenny Williams knows what VORP stands for, but acquiring Swisher and Quentin likely means the days of ‘grinder ball’ are over. Could 2008 see the White Sox give up less free outs, and put a priority on getting on-base near the top of the order? Who knows, but the recent news that Swisher will start the year in the leadoff spot is intriguing if nothing else.

Yet, looking at the White Sox prospects this season with reason and logic (I’m sorry, it won’t happen again), it’s hard to see a playoff run in store. The division is simply too hard, with Cleveland boasting an impressive collection of pitching and Detroit’s lineup looking like something out of a video game. The sad thing is that with all the young talent in the AL Central- Grady Sizemore, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, and Curtis Granderson were all born after Raiders of the Lost Ark was released- the Sox may be stuck in neutral for a long time.

PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus’ sabermetric system for predicting player and team performance, thinks this could be a long year for the Sox as well, projecting a 77-85 finish. But what does a computer know? It can’t take into account chemistry, leadership, heart, and grittiness, gadgummit! Well, Hawk Harrellson, maybe the computer knows more about baseball than you think. Last season PECOTA predicted the White Sox would finish 72-90, which is precisely what happened. The projected five win improvement has a lot to do with Swisher and Quentin, but it remains unclear how many at-bats Quentin will even get. Guillen seems to be infatuated with light hitting, speedy centerfielder Jerry Owens (who will remind Sox fans of Scott Podsednik in more ways than they’d like) and Cuban newcomer Alexei Ramirez. Ramirez wowed the coaching staff in the spring so much that it appears he will be a regular in center until Owens returns from injury. Quentin, who has battled consistent injury problems but posted an OPS near 1.000 during his last two minor league seasons, may find winning over his bunt-loving manager harder than expected.

The problems the Sox can control will begin this season with the starting rotation, a group weaker than last year’s after the questionable Jon Garland for Orlando Cabrera swap. In baseball, you win with pitching, and the Sox now have only two reliable starters. Their third starter, Jose Contreras, will be the key to the season, which isn’t necessarily a good thing considering he finished with an ERA over 5.5 and had to be shut down in the middle of the second half so he wouldn’t lose 20 games last year. Hey, at least getting Cabrera to play shortstop means we don’t have to deal with Juan Uribe anymore. Wait a second..

Oh, if they were only in another division. Place the Good Guys in the NL Central and they may be the favorites (assuming designated hitter Jim Thome would be allowed to play, but that’s a whole other can of worms). Even so, the White Sox can still be good this season, and certainly look to be fun to watch. It can’t come soon enough either, as Rex Grossman interceptions and botched Jim Boylan rotations can really take the fun out of Chicago sports. So no matter where you lie on the Joe Crede-Josh Fields argument, be excited, because baseball is back. Sure, Nick Massett will likely kill all that boyish enthusiasm rather quickly, but, hey, you never know. A tickertape parade wasn’t supposed to happen three years ago either, and look how that season turned out.

March 2008 Archive

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