A-rod Isn't Breaking Bonds' Record

If A-Rod stays healthy, I think he breaks it. Let's say he needs 800 to break it, I don't see Bonds sticking around long enough to hit 50 more.

By your math, he needs to average 35 per year to get there. The key word is average, he's still got at least 3 years left in his prime, so let's say he averages 45 for those years, that means the 38-40 years he'd only have to average 25, which is very doable.

The two things he's got going for him are his durability and his work ethic. He's probably the best conditioned Yankee, he rarely misses a game, and I think he's only been on the DL once in his entire career.

As for handling pressure, if it is something that troubles him his entire career, then you can expect the last couple of home runs to take a long time, but I doubt it'll plague him for much longer than that.

I think A-rod has a much better chance to break it if he leaves New York. He might have hit 60 this year is he wasn't playing in Yankee Stadium, and I think the New York pressure would be suffocating when he got close. Brian, do you think he'll be back with the Yanks next year? If not, can they teach Melkey to play third?

Anti-Bonds rhetoric aside (I kid, it's all good), you are damn right. The best odds for A-Rod breaking Bonds record (presuming 800 HRs) is about 40%, according to the Baseball Prospective.

And that doesn't take into consideration the possibility (however small) that Bonds might keep going, like Clemens, for another 5 years, and finish at 850 or 900 HRs. Or that A-Rod might have a serious injury at some point that not only causes him to miss a large portion of a season, but that might accelerate his decline. Like Griffey, Jr (the fastest to 400 HRs, then nothing).

Ricky,

I think whether he stays or goes depends largely on what he does in the playoffs this year. He's going to win the MVP, and this is going to be one of the best seasons in the history of the Yankees. If he follows that up with a great playoff performance, the Yanks will have no choice but to top any offer.

But, if he doesn't do well in the playoffs, that kind of gives the Yanks some leverage with the fans. If they don't want to pony up north of $35M/year, they could let him walk without a huge backlash.

If they don't make the playoffs, they'll sign him.

Personally, I want them to sign him, and I think it's going to happen, no matter what. This isn't Johnny Damon we're talking about, the Yanks can sign him to a 4 or 5 year extension at $35M/year (after the two years left on his current deal if he doesn't opt out) and be pretty sure they're going to get value for their money for the duration.

It's going to come down to A-Rod. This year, he's gotten a taste of how great NY can be to you if you perform. The MVP chants have started, and no matter what the press writes about him, the fans are behind him 100%. If he wants to win a couple of rings, and go down in history as a NY legend, then he stays. If he's only concerned with making the most money possible and reaching statistical milestones, then he walks and goes to Baltimore or Colorado, or maybe even Philly (he might hit 80 HRs in that park).

I think he stays in NY. Everything that's happened up to this year has been a test for him, and he's finally passing. He wants people to say Ruth, Dimaggio, Mantle, Mattingly, Jeter and Rodgriguez when they're talking about Yankee greats.

Long live Bonds!

Then I guess you think that Aaron and Williams took something unnatural too. Both of their HR-rate (HR/AB) increased in their late 30's vs. earlier in their career. Both should have been declining and yet both boosted their HR rate in their late 30's.

So while it is rare and unusual for a hitter to hit more late in his career, it not impossible as it has been done before and the common link there is that the three of them are three of the greatest hitters ever in baseball history.

Actually A-Rod does not consistently blow in the playoffs.

He dominated in the playoffs as a Mariner. And in his first season as a Yank in 2004 he went off--.320/.414/.600. He didn't hit in 2005 but had a .435 OBP for the series. And last year was brutal.

So I think the whole A-Rod playoff thing is blown out of proportion.

Hey obsessivegiantscompulsive, just look at how Barry's body, and especially head, have changed over the years. Someone's head does not change like that naturally. I'm not saying Bonds isn't a great hitter; I'm saying that it is very likely he used 'roids and HGH.

Giantsobsessivecompulsive,

Yeah, you're right about Aaron and Ted Williams, and I never realized that before. Still, a lot of great power hitters lose some juice towards the end of their career. It's not impossible for Arod to do it, but I just think it's going to be more difficult then people realize.

Hey, just to second what giantobsessivecompulsive is saying: Bonds was also helped by having decent (not even great) lineup protection for the first time when Kent was around - that's a factor in why he had some great years when Kent was in SF. Believe it or not, that's probably been the one time Bonds had any kind of decent protection behind him, aside from Van Slyke in Pittsburgh!

A-Rod's biggest obstacle may be that he may end up in a less stacked lineup as he gets older, especially if he goes to a team like the Giants or Dodgers. He's always had amazing protection - Griffey and crew in Seattle, the Texas crew, now the Yankees - and he may be exposed in he's in a weaker lineup (like the Giants right now). He'll also probably be walked a lot more, lowering his opportunities for homers.

Right, but don't you think Arod will be helped by a more hitter friendly ballpark. For a right-handed hitter (if im remembering this correctly), Yankee Stadium is awfully tough to hit homers in.

Sorry I'm a little late to the party here, but when is the new Yankee stadium going to be ready, and is it a more hitter friendly park?

If it is, and if A-Rod, stays....well, that's a lot of ifs. But he has the best potential of anyone to do it.

well i dont mean to rain on your parade but Arod is only 32... he's got a good 10 years left unless of course he gets hurt.. lets say for instance, that he hits 50 HR's for the next 8 seasons... he'll be up to 900 HR's i think hes got enough juice to keep hitting HR's even if he doesnt play for da yanks next season... but if he runs out of juice im gunna be mad because ive been a fan of his since he was on the rangers... then again he'll go down in history anyways, for hitting 500 HR's.... therefore i think he will break it...

Southlake J@ke