That Guy Deserves a Stone Cold Stunner: David Gassko and Mitchel Lichtman

Other websites and radio shows have segments where they call out people for doing or saying stupid things. Mike and Mike call it “Just Shut Up”, Mike Murphy sends out his “Tool of the Week”, and Mike North calls you a jaggbag. We’re starting a similar segment here at TUP called That Guy Deserves a Stone Cold Stunner. Why? Because Stone Cold said so...and because I still savor the glory days of late 90's WWF; that stuff is sweet when you're 11.

A word you’ve surely been hearing a lot the past few days is ‘overpaid’. Simmons and our guy Brian used it to describe Rashard Lewis, while Florida Marlins’ president David Samson dropped it on the Ichiro. But David Gassko of The Hardball Times and Michel Lichtman, author of this most likely bogus book, have done the unthinkable. They have used the word to describe Mark Buehrle.

That propensity for getting hurt is what, in general, makes pitchers such bad free agent targets. A player’s value is largely tied up in his ability to, well, play, and betting on a pitcher lasting a long-term deal without an injury is almost as foolish as betting on the Pirates to win the World Series (sorry, Pirates fans—I understand the suffering).

That’s why when Mark Buehrle signed a 4-year, $56 million extension this week, the reaction from the sabermetric corner of the world was not very positive. While the mainstream media commended the White Sox for signing Buehrle to a significantly below-market deal, more statistically-oriented fans replied with more caution and outright condemnation.

Now while I do agree that giving pitchers long term deals is usually a bad idea, that definitely isn’t the case with Buehrle. First of all, the Sox only gave him a four year contact, which isn’t bad at all considering Buehrle is only 28. When he comes off that contract he’ll be 32; there are a lot of good starting pitchers in the major leagues older then 32. Of course durability will be a major concern any time you sign a starting pitcher, but Buehrle has been as dependable as anyone in that department. He’s pitched over 200 innings the last six seasons (he’ll make it seven this year with over 123 at the All Star break) and has made 32 starts or more every year since moving into the rotation. He also has a lesser chance of getting hurt because he’s not a flame thrower or a junk pitcher. He’ll never blow out his arm from a throwing one physically taxing pitch over and over (like Kerry Wood) and, since he only throws about 87 mph, he’ll never get injured by over throwing his fastball (like, um, Kerry Wood). If you’re searching for a similar player, look no further then Greg Maddux. Now, obviously, Mad Dog is one of the all-time greats, I’m not comparing their ability, just their style. Maddux has been remarkably dependent throughout his career, pitching over 200 innings in seventeen seasons (and one down year where he pitched a disappointing 199.1). Also, if a team never resigned their starters, then their rotation would be horrible. Everyone loves young pitchers because their cheap and usually more durable, but it would be nearly impossible to field an entire rotation like that and his still competent.

Lichtman then crunches some numbers to see how Buehrle will do the next four years.

More than 25% [of pitchers comparable to Buehrle] are not pitching at all in 4 years… you expect that on average Buehrle will pitch only 100 IP or so in 4 years…including the times he does not pitch at all… even with good, historically durable pitchers, you still can expect to lose 10-15% in quality/quantity per year.

Gassko translated Buehrle’s projected numbers over the next four years with a Wins Over Replacement value. This is what he deduced:

Year IP ERA WAR 2008 177 3.96 2.99 2009 159 3.71 3.16 2010 140 3.78 2.66 2011 109 4.01 1.76

Now I’m no mathamagican, but I would bet good money that Buehrle out performs those numbers no problem. 140 innings in 2010 and 109 in 2011? What in his history would make anyone think that?

But the real issue here is whether Buehrle is overpaid. He signed a four year, $56 million extension- that’s $14 million a season. If these dudes think Buehrle is overrated, I wonder what they think of some of the pitchers that signed long term contracts last winter. Let’s take a look at some of the fun ones. Barry Zito, seven years-$126 million, that’s $18 mil a year. He’s 6-9 and has an ERA of 4.9. How about Jason Schmidt, Jeff Weaver, or Adam Eaton? Those guys make a lot of money too and they all suck. At least Buehrle is good (ERA under 3!!).

So for being such morons, David Gassko and Mitchel Lichtman, my old pal the Texas Rattlesnake has a little present for you.